Probability underpins AI, cryptography and statistics. However, as the philosopher Bertrand Russell said, “Probability is the ...
The US equity market stands at the most extreme valuations in history, on the measures we find best correlated with actual ...
In most states, Medicaid eligibility rules shift at age 19, when individuals transition from child to adult classification. A new study led by the University of Chicago finds that this policy ...
In terms of class probability, entrepreneurs and consumers have to decide which characteristics of a particular event are unique (and not relevant to the probability estimate) and which elements are ...
Background A more nuanced understanding of behavioural responses to incentives over time, particularly after they are removed, could guide more effective interventions. In this study, we build on the ...
'Conditional intensity' changes the way severe weather risks are forecasted.
George Pólya’s random walk theorem absolved him of being a lurker and revealed how the laws of chance interact with physical ...
Bayes' theorem is a statistical formula used to calculate conditional probability. Learn how it works, how to calculate it ...
Risk prediction has been used in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease for >3 decades. Contemporary cardiovascular risk assessment relies on multivariable models, which integrate ...
In this project, the student will work on probabilistic modelling and machine-learning techniques to advance the current description of nuclear reactions in specific energy regimes of astrophysical ...
Fundamentally, a truly valuable financial analysis must spark a posterior belief change relative to the prior — and that’s ...
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